today <- Sys.Date() # today's date

Mise à jour du 2021-03-26.
Source des données : https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-de-laboratoires-pour-le-depistage-indicateurs-sur-les-variants/


QUESTIONS:
- Ajouter données Flash ? Pour avoir des points plus anciens


Légende

library("RColorBrewer")
brw <- brewer.pal(12, "Set3")
brw[2] <- brw[12] # Darker yellow
brw[10] <- brw[11] # Lighter shade
colsAge <- c("#000000FF", brw[1:10])
names(colsAge) <- c("0", "9", "19", "29", "39", "49", "59", "69", "79", "89", "90")
pchAge <- c(16, 0:9)
names(pchAge) <- names(colsAge)
cexAge <- c(1.2, rep(1, 10))
names(cexAge) <- names(colsAge)

ages <- c("tous", "0-9", "10-19", "20-29", "30-39", "40-49", "50-59", "60-69", "70-79", "80-89", "90+")
par(mfrow = c(1, 1))
plot(0:1, 0:1, type = "n", axes = FALSE, xlab = "", ylab = "")
legend(x = 0.5, y = 1, legend = ages, pch = pchAge, col = colsAge)

Données France

Load data

# Données France
URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/c43d7f3f-c9f5-436b-9b26-728f80e0fd52"
dataFile <- paste0("data/France_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.France <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

# Format date
dat.France$date1 <- as.Date(substring(dat.France$semaine, 1, 10))
dat.France$date2 <- as.Date(substring(dat.France$semaine, 12, 21))

# Rewrite time as days since beginning of the data
dat.France$time <- dat.France$date2 - min(dat.France$date2)

# Compute data on total tests
dat.France$Nb_tests_POS <- dat.France$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible / (dat.France$Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible / 100)

# Dictionnary to reformat age class
dic.age <- (0:9)*10 + 4.5 # Median of age classes
names(dic.age) <- as.character(c(0 + (0:8)*10 + 9, 90))

Compare the data to another source – number of positive tests

# Compare to another source
URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/dd0de5d9-b5a5-4503-930a-7b08dc0adc7c"
dataFile <- paste0("data/tests-France_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.tests <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/c1167c4e-8c89-40f2-adb3-1954f8fedfa7"
dataFile <- paste0("data/tests7j-France_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.tests7j <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
dat.tests7j$date1 <- as.Date(substring(dat.tests7j$semaine_glissante, 1, 10))
dat.tests7j$date2 <- as.Date(substring(dat.tests7j$semaine_glissante, 12, 21))

# P nombre de tests positifs
# T nombre de tests total

dat.tests$date <- as.Date(dat.tests$jour)
dateRange <- range(c(range(dat.France$date1), range(dat.France$date2)))

subdat.tests <- dat.tests[dat.tests$date >= dateRange[1] & dat.tests$date <= dateRange[2],]

# Function to compute a sliding window 
sliding.window <- function(v, winwdt = 7, pos = 4, na.rm = TRUE){
  # v vector to be averaged/summed
  # winwdt width of the window 
  # pos position of the focal day in the window
  # FUN function to apply
  n <- length(v)
  # Initialize output vector
  out <- 0 * v + (-1)
  out[1:(pos-1)] <- NA
  out[(n + 1 - winwdt + pos) : n] <- NA
  
  for(i in pos : (n - winwdt + pos)){
    out[i] <- mean(v[(i - pos + 1):(i + winwdt - pos)], na.rm = na.rm)
  }
  return(out[1:n])
}

subdat.tests.0 <- subdat.tests[subdat.tests$cl_age90 == 0, ]
dat.France.0 <- dat.France[dat.France$cl_age90 == 0, ]

subdat.tests.0$P.7.1 <- 7 * sliding.window(subdat.tests.0$P, pos = 1)
subdat.tests.0$P.7.4 <- 7 * sliding.window(subdat.tests.0$P, pos = 4)
subdat.tests.0$P.7.7 <- 7 * sliding.window(subdat.tests.0$P, pos = 7)
subdat.tests.0$P.8.8 <- 8 * sliding.window(subdat.tests.0$P, pos = 8, winwdt = 8)

plot(dat.France.0$date2, dat.France.0$Nb_tests_POS, ylim = c(1*10^5, 2*10^5), pch = 16, 
     xlab = "date", ylab = "nombre de tests")
points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.7.1, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "red")
points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.7.4, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "green")
points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.7.7, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "blue")
points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.8.8, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "purple")
points(dat.tests7j$date2, dat.tests7j$P, pch = 2)
legend(x = as.Date("2021-02-18"), y = 200000, col = c("black", "red", "green", "blue", "purple", "black"), legend = c("sidep tests", "w7, c1", "w7, c4", "w7, c7", "w8, c8", "sidep 7j-fin"), pch = c(16, rep(1, 4), 2))

Legend notation:
w: width of the window, c: position of the index day.
So the sliding window is on the 7 last days.
The difference (about 15% more positives in the variants dataset) may be due to the variant data being in terms of tests, and the other in terms of people, with duplicates removed.

#plot(dat.France.0$date2, dat.France.0$Nb_tests, ylim = c(1*10^5, 2*10^5), pch = 16, 
#     xlab = "date", ylab = "comparaison nombre de tests")
#points(subdat.tests.0$date, subdat.tests.0$P.7.7, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "blue")
#points(subdat.tests.0$date, 1.17*subdat.tests.0$P.7.7, ylim = c(0, 5*10^5), col = "orange")

Format the data further (age class data)

# Data per age class
dat.France.ages <- dat.France[dat.France$cl_age90 != 0,]

# Add new age class code -- median of the age class
dat.France.ages$ageClass <- dic.age[as.character(dat.France.ages$cl_age90)]

# Standardize age class values
dat.France.ages$stdage <- (dat.France.ages$ageClass - mean(dat.France.ages$ageClass))/dat.France.ages$ageClass

V1

Compute r

names(dat.France)
##  [1] "fra"                     "semaine"                
##  [3] "cl_age90"                "Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible" 
##  [5] "Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible" "Nb_susp_501Y_V1"        
##  [7] "Prc_susp_501Y_V1"        "Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3"      
##  [9] "Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3"      "Nb_susp_IND"            
## [11] "Prc_susp_IND"            "Nb_susp_ABS"            
## [13] "Prc_susp_ABS"            "date1"                  
## [15] "date2"                   "time"                   
## [17] "Nb_tests_POS"
dat.France$rABS <- NA
dat.France$rV1 <- NA
dat.France$rV23 <- NA

for(iage in unique(dat.France$cl_age90)){
  ilines <- which(dat.France$cl_age90 == iage)
  sub <- dat.France[ilines, ]
  dat.France[ilines, "rABS"] <- c(diff(sub$Nb_susp_ABS), NA)
  dat.France[ilines, "rV1"] <- c(diff(sub$Nb_susp_501Y_V1), NA)
  dat.France[ilines, "rV23"] <- c(diff(sub$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3), NA)
}

Plot

# All ages, time
par(las = 1)
plot(dat.France$date2, dat.France$Prc_susp_501Y_V1, ylim = c(0, 100), 
     col = colsAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     pch = pchAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     cex = cexAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V1", axes = FALSE)
axis(1, pos = 0, at = as.Date(unique(dat.France$date2)), labels = format(unique(dat.France$date2), format = "%b %d"))
axis(2)

# Plot dp/(p(1-p)) for each age class
ageClasses <- sort(unique(dat.France$cl_age90))
nAge <- length(ageClasses)
dat.France$s <- NA
dat.France$diffTot <- NA
for(iage in unique(dat.France$cl_age90)){
  ilines <- which(dat.France$cl_age90 == iage)
  sub <- dat.France[ilines, ]
  V1 <- sub$Prc_susp_501Y_V1/100
  t <- sub$date2
  s <- diff(V1) / (V1[-length(V1)]*(1-V1[-length(V1)]))
  V2 <- log(V1/(1-V1)) # Logit
  s2 <- diff(V2)
  plot(t[-length(V1)], s, ylim = c(-0.1, 0.1),  main = iage)
  lines(t[-length(V2)], s2, col = 2)
  print(c(iage, mean(s)))
  dat.France[ilines, "s"] <- c(s2, NA)
  dat.France[ilines, "diffTot"] <- c(diff(sub$Nb_tests_POS), NA)
}

Test

Binomial model

# Create new colums with information on number of specific PCR tests
# PCR with V1 result
dat.France.ages$V1 <- dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1
# All other PCRs (considering NAs are non-V1)
dat.France.ages$notV1 <- dat.France.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible - dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1
# All other PCRs with a result (removing NAs)
dat.France.ages$notV1.narm <- dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3 + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_ABS

# Check that columns correctly sum
all(dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3 + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_ABS + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1 + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_IND - dat.France.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible == 0)
## [1] TRUE

GLM, assume that all indeterminate PCRs are non-V1

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V1
mdl0 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl0)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass), family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -7.4216  -1.4031   0.0908   1.7832   6.0313  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                0.1158181  0.0105318   11.00   <2e-16 ***
## time                       0.0338029  0.0005279   64.03   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5      -0.1367377  0.0121761  -11.23   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5      -0.1847319  0.0119975  -15.40   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5      -0.1455183  0.0119852  -12.14   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5      -0.1387506  0.0119699  -11.59   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5      -0.2477816  0.0120790  -20.51   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5      -0.3753415  0.0126355  -29.70   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5      -0.5865129  0.0137576  -42.63   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5      -0.8928445  0.0148790  -60.01   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5      -1.0904669  0.0185105  -58.91   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5  0.0096167  0.0006184   15.55   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5  0.0104310  0.0006111   17.07   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0096891  0.0006110   15.86   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0103130  0.0006112   16.87   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0119274  0.0006184   19.29   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5  0.0130909  0.0006489   20.18   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5  0.0178774  0.0007169   24.94   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5  0.0204365  0.0007869   25.97   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5  0.0237752  0.0010203   23.30   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 178561.3  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:   2075.7  on 310  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 5228.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
# Without interaction
mdl1 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass), family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -9.4000  -1.7970   0.7517   2.4016   6.2868  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)          -0.0799313  0.0054904 -14.558  < 2e-16 ***
## time                  0.0450787  0.0001194 377.575  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5  0.0317311  0.0059322   5.349 8.85e-08 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5 -0.0026336  0.0058491  -0.450    0.653    
## factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0248353  0.0058648   4.235 2.29e-05 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0417276  0.0058654   7.114 1.13e-12 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5 -0.0417327  0.0059193  -7.050 1.79e-12 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5 -0.1505602  0.0061890 -24.327  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5 -0.2865690  0.0067666 -42.351  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5 -0.5559603  0.0074320 -74.806  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5 -0.7118392  0.0096171 -74.018  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 178561.3  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:   3270.8  on 319  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 6405.8
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl1, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       319     3270.8                          
## 2       310     2075.7  9   1195.1 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
  1. Age as quantitative
# Test date effect
mdl2 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass, data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass, family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -13.954   -5.950   -1.089    3.207   10.613  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)    2.267e-01  4.780e-03   47.42   <2e-16 ***
## time           3.715e-02  2.546e-04  145.90   <2e-16 ***
## ageClass      -8.781e-03  9.919e-05  -88.52   <2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass  1.911e-04  5.386e-06   35.48   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 178561  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  10544  on 326  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 13665
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl2, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       326    10543.7                          
## 2       310     2075.7 16   8467.9 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

GLM, ignore indeterminate PCRs

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V1
mdl0.narm <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl0.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -6.3117  -1.1223   0.1249   1.4628   5.6532  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                0.2799441  0.0116366  24.057  < 2e-16 ***
## time                       0.0494411  0.0006183  79.958  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5      -0.1780612  0.0133623 -13.326  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5      -0.2059935  0.0131859 -15.622  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5      -0.1618812  0.0131662 -12.295  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5      -0.1765850  0.0131427 -13.436  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5      -0.2819379  0.0132438 -21.288  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5      -0.4101300  0.0138042 -29.711  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5      -0.6138385  0.0149717 -41.000  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5      -0.9149864  0.0160652 -56.955  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5      -1.1407116  0.0197676 -57.706  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5  0.0055827  0.0007168   7.789 6.77e-15 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5  0.0063247  0.0007096   8.913  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0043450  0.0007086   6.132 8.67e-10 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0058429  0.0007089   8.242  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0062815  0.0007151   8.784  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5  0.0063192  0.0007455   8.476  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5  0.0116894  0.0008192  14.270  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5  0.0134442  0.0008891  15.121  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5  0.0194138  0.0011441  16.969  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 214316.6  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:   1590.3  on 310  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 4673.7
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
# Without interaction
mdl1.narm <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max  
## -8.037  -1.435   0.281   1.867   6.869  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                       Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)           0.175815   0.006310   27.86   <2e-16 ***
## time                  0.055914   0.000134  417.31   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5 -0.087726   0.006841  -12.82   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5 -0.104123   0.006757  -15.41   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5 -0.089889   0.006767  -13.28   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5 -0.081872   0.006762  -12.11   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5 -0.180678   0.006808  -26.54   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5 -0.308348   0.007078  -43.56   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5 -0.431330   0.007686  -56.12   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5 -0.708295   0.008343  -84.89   <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5 -0.857404   0.010591  -80.96   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 214316.6  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:   2146.9  on 319  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 5212.4
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl1.narm, mdl0.narm, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       319     2146.9                          
## 2       310     1590.3  9   556.68 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
  1. Age as quantitative
# Test date effect
mdl2.narm <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * ageClass, data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * ageClass, family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -12.903   -4.483   -1.010    2.593   11.110  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)    3.671e-01  5.168e-03   71.02   <2e-16 ***
## time           5.038e-02  2.890e-04  174.33   <2e-16 ***
## ageClass      -8.908e-03  1.066e-04  -83.57   <2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass  1.327e-04  6.057e-06   21.92   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 214316.6  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:   7885.6  on 326  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 10937
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl2.narm, mdl0.narm, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * ageClass
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       326     7885.6                          
## 2       310     1590.3 16   6295.4 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
plot(dat.France$diffTot, dat.France$s, 
     xlab = "Increase in total number of positive tests over 1 day", 
     ylab = "s")

all(is.na(dat.France$diffTot) == is.na(dat.France$s))
lineRemove <- is.na(dat.France$diffTot)
mdl <- lm(dat.France$s[!lineRemove] ~ dat.France$diffTot[!lineRemove])
summary(mdl)

cor.test(dat.France$diffTot[!lineRemove], dat.France$s[!lineRemove])

No effet of epidemic growth on selective advantage of the variant

V2/V3

Plot

# All ages, time
par(las = 1)
plot(dat.France$date2, dat.France$Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3, ylim = c(0, 100), 
     col = colsAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     pch = pchAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     cex = cexAge[as.character(dat.France$cl_age90)], 
     xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V2/V3", axes = FALSE)
axis(1, pos = 0, at = as.Date(unique(dat.France$date2)), labels = format(unique(dat.France$date2), format = "%b %d"))
axis(2)

Test

Binomial

# Create new colums with information on number of specific PCR tests
# PCR with V2/V3 result
dat.France.ages$V23 <- dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3
# All other PCRs (considering NAs are non-V23)
dat.France.ages$notV23 <- dat.France.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible - dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3
# All other PCRs with a result (removing NAs)
dat.France.ages$notV23.narm <- dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1 + dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_ABS

GLM, assume that all indeterminate PCRs are non-V1

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V23
mdl0 <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl0)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * factor(ageClass), family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -4.6092  -1.1560  -0.1338   0.8695   4.5432  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)               -3.0102315  0.0244252 -123.243  < 2e-16 ***
## time                      -0.0026109  0.0011838   -2.205 0.027419 *  
## factor(ageClass)14.5       0.2172266  0.0277527    7.827 4.99e-15 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5       0.1550904  0.0274089    5.658 1.53e-08 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5       0.0905059  0.0275266    3.288 0.001009 ** 
## factor(ageClass)44.5       0.0331989  0.0276229    1.202 0.229419    
## factor(ageClass)54.5       0.0566652  0.0277870    2.039 0.041423 *  
## factor(ageClass)64.5       0.1469420  0.0287324    5.114 3.15e-07 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5      -0.2696790  0.0330185   -8.168 3.15e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5      -0.3863796  0.0365790  -10.563  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5      -0.2759273  0.0447587   -6.165 7.06e-10 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5 -0.0071626  0.0013640   -5.251 1.51e-07 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5  0.0001497  0.0013431    0.111 0.911256    
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0008788  0.0013491    0.651 0.514810    
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0016425  0.0013549    1.212 0.225420    
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0034518  0.0013646    2.529 0.011424 *  
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5  0.0023320  0.0014170    1.646 0.099827 .  
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5  0.0129145  0.0016332    7.908 2.62e-15 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5  0.0149596  0.0018472    8.099 5.55e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5  0.0081218  0.0024139    3.365 0.000766 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2306.56  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  851.92  on 310  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3474.1
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
# Without interaction
mdl1 <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time + factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time + factor(ageClass), family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.2756  -1.3630  -0.0572   1.3379   5.7565  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                       Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)          -3.035999   0.012236 -248.127  < 2e-16 ***
## time                 -0.001207   0.000255   -4.732 2.22e-06 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5  0.094876   0.013024    7.285 3.22e-13 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5  0.159246   0.012793   12.448  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5  0.107256   0.012881    8.327  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5  0.063036   0.012936    4.873 1.10e-06 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5  0.117168   0.013017    9.001  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5  0.188406   0.013506   13.949  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5 -0.049456   0.015491   -3.193  0.00141 ** 
## factor(ageClass)84.5 -0.142987   0.017705   -8.076 6.70e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5 -0.151908   0.023460   -6.475 9.47e-11 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2306.6  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1234.8  on 319  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3839
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl1, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       319    1234.83                          
## 2       310     851.92  9   382.91 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
  1. Age as quantitative
# Test date effect
mdl2 <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * ageClass, data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * ageClass, family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.2210  -2.0846  -0.7215   1.0707   6.0041  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)   -2.750e+00  1.050e-02 -261.78   <2e-16 ***
## time          -9.696e-03  5.358e-04  -18.09   <2e-16 ***
## ageClass      -4.790e-03  2.249e-04  -21.30   <2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass  2.100e-04  1.157e-05   18.16   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2306.6  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1834.2  on 326  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 4424.4
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl2, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * ageClass
## Model 2: cbind(V23, notV23) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       326    1834.23                          
## 2       310     851.92 16   982.31 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

GLM, ignore indeterminate PCRs

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V23
mdl0.narm <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl0.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -4.4884  -1.1668  -0.1119   0.9370   4.3777  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)               -2.9065838  0.0245190 -118.544  < 2e-16 ***
## time                      -0.0015969  0.0011889   -1.343 0.179226    
## factor(ageClass)14.5       0.1998069  0.0278528    7.174 7.30e-13 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5       0.1483125  0.0275053    5.392 6.96e-08 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5       0.0807354  0.0276216    2.923 0.003468 ** 
## factor(ageClass)44.5       0.0151329  0.0277212    0.546 0.585136    
## factor(ageClass)54.5       0.0430184  0.0278835    1.543 0.122881    
## factor(ageClass)64.5       0.1373694  0.0288352    4.764 1.90e-06 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5      -0.2653767  0.0331259   -8.011 1.14e-15 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5      -0.3692165  0.0366755  -10.067  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5      -0.2640608  0.0448665   -5.885 3.97e-09 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5 -0.0078776  0.0013693   -5.753 8.77e-09 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5 -0.0007156  0.0013482   -0.531 0.595583    
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5 -0.0001422  0.0013541   -0.105 0.916380    
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0008708  0.0013602    0.640 0.522018    
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0025138  0.0013698    1.835 0.066483 .  
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5  0.0012627  0.0014225    0.888 0.374723    
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5  0.0117418  0.0016390    7.164 7.83e-13 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5  0.0138664  0.0018523    7.486 7.09e-14 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5  0.0080562  0.0024198    3.329 0.000871 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2102.6  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  826.4  on 310  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3446.9
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 3
# Without interaction
mdl1.narm <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass), data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.1271  -1.3521  -0.0735   1.2504   5.5827  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                        Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)          -2.9165972  0.0122631 -237.835  < 2e-16 ***
## time                 -0.0010500  0.0002556   -4.108 3.99e-05 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5  0.0642214  0.0130598    4.918 8.77e-07 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5  0.1365776  0.0128296   10.646  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5  0.0789190  0.0129164    6.110 9.96e-10 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5  0.0306796  0.0129713    2.365    0.018 *  
## factor(ageClass)54.5  0.0864052  0.0130528    6.620 3.60e-11 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5  0.1595007  0.0135440   11.777  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5 -0.0660754  0.0155317   -4.254 2.10e-05 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5 -0.1452327  0.0177514   -8.181 2.80e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5 -0.1445022  0.0235242   -6.143 8.11e-10 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2102.6  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1194.1  on 319  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 3796.6
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl1.narm, mdl0.narm, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       319     1194.1                          
## 2       310      826.4  9    367.7 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Conclusion : the change in frequency of the variant varies across age classes, different slopes for different ages. Faster for youngest (0-10) and for oldest (70+). Initially lower frequency for old people, but steeper slope: Older ones catch back younger ones.

  1. Age as quantitative
# Test date effect
mdl2.narm <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * ageClass, data = dat.France.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * ageClass, family = "binomial", 
##     data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -4.7548  -1.9676  -0.6058   1.0102   5.7314  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)   -2.664e+00  1.056e-02 -252.18   <2e-16 ***
## time          -9.205e-03  5.391e-04  -17.07   <2e-16 ***
## ageClass      -4.588e-03  2.263e-04  -20.27   <2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass  2.017e-04  1.165e-05   17.32   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 2102.6  on 329  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 1677.7  on 326  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 4266.2
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl2.narm, mdl0.narm, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * ageClass
## Model 2: cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ time * factor(ageClass)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev Df Deviance  Pr(>Chi)    
## 1       326     1677.7                          
## 2       310      826.4 16    851.3 < 2.2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Multinomial

Prepare plots for distribution of variants

par(mfrow = c(1, 1))

getVec <- function(dataset, prop = TRUE){
  if(prop){
    nn <- 1
  }else{
    nn <- dataset$Nb_tests_POS / 7 # Divide by 7 to have average over the week instead of sum
  }
  x <- dataset$date2
  cA <- dataset$Prc_susp_ABS/100 * nn
  cB <- cA + dataset$Prc_susp_IND/100 * nn
  cC <- cB + dataset$Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3/100 * nn
  cD <- cC + dataset$Prc_susp_501Y_V1/100 * nn
  list(x = x, cA = cA, cB = cB, cC = cC, cD = cD)
}

colV <- c(brewer.pal(3, "Set2"), gray(0.5))
colV <- colV[c(3, 4, 2, 1)]

plotDist <- function(x, cA, cB, cC, cD){
#  if(max(cD, na.rm = TRUE) <= 1.1 | max(cD, na.rm = TRUE) >= 99 | max(cA, na.rm = TRUE) >= 99){
#    yl <- "Proportions variants"
#  }else{
    yl <- "Number cases"
#  }
  plot(x, cA, ylim = c(0, max(cD, na.rm = TRUE)), type = "l", 
       xlab = "date", ylab = yl, axes = FALSE)
  axis(1, pos = 0, labels = format(x, "%b-%d"), at = x)
  axis(2, pos = x[1])
  polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(rep(0, length(x)), rev(cA)), col = colV[1], border = NULL)
  polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(cA, rev(cB)), col = colV[2], border = NULL)
  polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(cB, rev(cC)), col = colV[3], border = NULL)
  polygon(c(x, rev(x)), c(cC, rev(cD)), col = colV[4], border = NULL)
  
  nend <- length(x)-1
  text(x = rep(x[nend], 4), y = c(cA[nend]/2, cA[nend] + (cB[nend] - cA[nend])/2, cB[nend] + (cC[nend] - cB[nend])/2, cC[nend] + (cD[nend] - cC[nend])/2), labels = c("WT", "indet.", "V2/V3", "V1"), col = "white", adj = 1)
}

Frequencies

cc <- getVec(dat.France.0, prop = TRUE)
plotDist(cc$x, cc$cA, cc$cB, cc$cC, cc$cD)

Densities

cc <- getVec(dat.France.0, prop = FALSE)
plotDist(cc$x, cc$cA, cc$cB, cc$cC, cc$cD)

mat <- as.matrix(data.frame(WT = dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_ABS, 
                            V1 = dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1, 
                            V2 = dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3, 
                            INDET = dat.France.ages$Nb_susp_IND))

library(nnet)

## Null model
m0 <- multinom(mat ~ 1)
## # weights:  8 (3 variable)
## initial  value 5065978.458966 
## iter  10 value 3559479.387870
## iter  10 value 3559479.382851
## final  value 3559475.764500 
## converged
summary(m0)
## Call:
## multinom(formula = mat ~ 1)
## 
## Coefficients:
##       (Intercept)
## V1      1.0980281
## V2     -1.4839108
## INDET  -0.8980916
## 
## Std. Errors:
##       (Intercept)
## V1    0.001300162
## V2    0.002618795
## INDET 0.002092739
## 
## Residual Deviance: 7118952 
## AIC: 7118958
## Compute by hand to check result
log(colSums(mat)[2]/colSums(mat)[1])
##       V1 
## 1.097924
log(colSums(mat)[3]/colSums(mat)[1])
##        V2 
## -1.483792
log(colSums(mat)[4]/colSums(mat)[1])
##     INDET 
## -0.897997
## Time effect
m1 <- multinom(mat ~ time, data=dat.France.ages)
## # weights:  12 (6 variable)
## initial  value 5065978.458966 
## iter  10 value 3464108.650568
## final  value 3448968.493950 
## converged
summary(m1)
## Call:
## multinom(formula = mat ~ time, data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Coefficients:
##       (Intercept)       time
## V1     0.06050307 0.06608090
## V2    -2.22297838 0.04923290
## INDET -1.66828483 0.05117362
## 
## Std. Errors:
##       (Intercept)         time
## V1    0.002483608 0.0001458336
## V2    0.005299699 0.0002813017
## INDET 0.004193554 0.0002261579
## 
## Residual Deviance: 6897937 
## AIC: 6897949
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(m0, m1, test="Chisq")
##   Model Resid. df Resid. Dev   Test    Df LR stat. Pr(Chi)
## 1     1       987    7118952           NA       NA      NA
## 2  time       984    6897937 1 vs 2     3 221014.5       0
## Age effect
m2 <- multinom(mat ~ time + stdage, data=dat.France.ages)
## # weights:  16 (9 variable)
## initial  value 5065978.458966 
## iter  10 value 3722355.510200
## final  value 3446697.350209 
## converged
summary(m2)
## Call:
## multinom(formula = mat ~ time + stdage, data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Coefficients:
##       (Intercept)       time      stdage
## V1     0.02728941 0.06602440 -0.03934552
## V2    -2.23762402 0.04876853 -0.03001104
## INDET -1.71056236 0.05101108 -0.05108537
## 
## Std. Errors:
##       (Intercept)         time       stdage
## V1    0.002540041 0.0001461461 0.0006595229
## V2    0.005379188 0.0002812756 0.0012176883
## INDET 0.004273000 0.0002263457 0.0009434981
## 
## Residual Deviance: 6893395 
## AIC: 6893413
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(m1, m2, test="Chisq")
##           Model Resid. df Resid. Dev   Test    Df LR stat. Pr(Chi)
## 1          time       984    6897937           NA       NA      NA
## 2 time + stdage       981    6893395 1 vs 2     3 4542.287       0
## Age effect
m3 <- multinom(mat ~ time * stdage, data=dat.France.ages)
## # weights:  20 (12 variable)
## initial  value 5065978.458966 
## iter  10 value 3517226.508043
## iter  20 value 3446366.386288
## iter  20 value 3446366.362835
## iter  20 value 3446366.362736
## final  value 3446366.362736 
## converged
summary(m3)
## Call:
## multinom(formula = mat ~ time * stdage, data = dat.France.ages)
## 
## Coefficients:
##       (Intercept)       time      stdage   time:stdage
## V1     0.01202235 0.06684817 -0.05779589  0.0011469422
## V2    -2.25156200 0.04971883 -0.04904322  0.0013373663
## INDET -1.69098552 0.04980168 -0.03621440 -0.0006382814
## 
## Std. Errors:
##       (Intercept)         time      stdage  time:stdage
## V1    0.002694321 0.0001591214 0.001231328 6.916949e-05
## V2    0.005744261 0.0003069256 0.002472592 1.282858e-04
## INDET 0.004556011 0.0002477321 0.001969124 1.003894e-04
## 
## Residual Deviance: 6892733 
## AIC: 6892757
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(m2, m3, test="Chisq")
##           Model Resid. df Resid. Dev   Test    Df LR stat. Pr(Chi)
## 1 time + stdage       981    6893395           NA       NA      NA
## 2 time * stdage       978    6892733 1 vs 2     3 661.9749       0

Pb in the data is the change in the age structure of positive individuals; to really test the effet, we would need information on the negative tests as well, and the age distribution in these negative tests.

tapply(dat.France.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible, list(dat.France.ages$cl_age90, dat.France.ages$time), sum)
##        0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11
## 9   3577  3828  3925  3954  4023  4111  4254  4353  4500  4522  4509  4543
## 19 10520 11470 11873 11937 12483 12878 13200 13516 13708 13738 13781 13926
## 29 11724 12964 13391 13514 14374 14939 15296 15549 15583 15727 15758 15828
## 39 12338 13366 13837 13887 14552 15079 15323 15574 15646 15618 15680 15771
## 49 12438 13583 14052 14171 14884 15411 15773 15842 15915 16034 16041 16026
## 59 11201 12338 12827 12921 13737 14265 14607 14918 14996 15005 15006 14892
## 69  8044  8823  9084  9151  9634  9988 10312 10555 10598 10728 10731 10816
## 79  5178  5625  5848  5922  6114  6428  6603  6674  6727  6741  6715  6739
## 89  4332  4650  4752  4818  4835  4818  4802  4693  4635  4611  4595  4431
## 90  2418  2508  2558  2588  2542  2501  2391  2308  2229  2211  2199  2015
##       12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23
## 9   4592  4580  4666  4749  4783  4813  5022  5257  5556  5875  6263  6520
## 19 13953 14042 14070 14227 14365 14379 14714 15228 15678 16299 17022 17396
## 29 15972 16025 16169 16282 16344 16317 16673 16882 17346 18016 18719 19011
## 39 15657 15704 15590 15631 15790 15765 15963 16130 16498 17135 17760 18136
## 49 15854 15722 15733 15568 15564 15563 15880 16181 16692 17218 17921 18262
## 59 14757 14590 14386 14318 14350 14350 14499 14647 14996 15501 15864 16177
## 69 10797 10669 10582 10553 10518 10484 10409 10613 10766 10993 11258 11411
## 79  6617  6518  6429  6416  6455  6447  6468  6434  6489  6635  6697  6770
## 89  4338  4172  4088  4011  3998  3990  3933  3955  4061  4104  4178  4221
## 90  1900  1801  1706  1680  1673  1656  1616  1543  1560  1562  1577  1585
##       24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32
## 9   6565  7066  7466  7713  8056  8301  8333  8315  8194
## 19 17495 18346 19074 19712 20167 20434 20520 20461 20044
## 29 19148 19868 20548 21066 21100 21022 20795 20669 19622
## 39 18326 19291 19993 20600 20915 21105 21013 20899 19988
## 49 18422 19178 19842 20407 20588 20646 20670 20567 19868
## 59 16294 16985 17508 17931 18160 18236 18065 17984 17246
## 69 11471 11985 12245 12557 12944 12974 12987 12951 12470
## 79  6845  7052  7120  7191  7229  7237  7178  7141  6746
## 89  4207  4366  4331  4337  4335  4276  4207  4185  3889
## 90  1586  1664  1678  1700  1726  1719  1692  1674  1568

Données régions

Load data

URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/73e8851a-d851-43f8-89e4-6178b35b7127"
dataFile <- paste0("data/Regions_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.regions <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

# Format date
dat.regions$date1 <- as.Date(substring(dat.regions$semaine, 1, 10))
dat.regions$date2 <- as.Date(substring(dat.regions$semaine, 12, 21))

# Rewrite time as days since beginning of the data
dat.regions$time <- dat.regions$date2 - min(dat.regions$date2)

# Compute data on total tests
dat.regions$Nb_tests_POS <- dat.regions$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible / (dat.regions$Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible / 100)
# Codes regions
URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/r/34fc7b52-ef11-4ab0-bc16-e1aae5c942e7"
dataFile <- "data/coderegions.csv"
download.file(URL, dataFile)
codesRegions <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ",", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

# Turn into dictionary
regs <- codesRegions$nom_region
names(regs) <- as.character(codesRegions$code_region)
# Add region name
dat.regions$reg_name <- regs[as.character(dat.regions$reg)]
# dat.regions[floor(runif(10)*1000), c("reg", "reg_name")] # check a few names

# What are the other regions??
# aggregate(dat.regions$reg, by = list(dat.regions$reg), FUN = length)

Format data further

dat.regions.ages <- dat.regions[dat.regions$cl_age90 != 0,]

# Add new age class code -- median of the age class
dat.regions.ages$ageClass <- dic.age[as.character(dat.regions.ages$cl_age90)]

# Standardize age class values
dat.regions.ages$stdage <- (dat.regions.ages$ageClass - mean(dat.regions.ages$ageClass))/dat.regions.ages$ageClass

V1

Plot

tmp <- unique(dat.regions$reg) # Region codes
tmp <- tmp[tmp>10 & tmp <= 93] # Choose only metropolitan regions
par(mfrow = c(4, 3))
for(region in tmp){
  subdat <- dat.regions[dat.regions$reg == region, ]
  plot(subdat$date2, subdat$Prc_susp_501Y_V1, ylim = c(0, 100), main = regs[as.character(region)], col = colsAge[as.character(subdat$cl_age90)], pch = pchAge[as.character(subdat$cl_age90)], 
       xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V1"
       )
}

Test

# Create new colums with information on number of specific PCR tests
# PCR with V1 result
dat.regions.ages$V1 <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1
# All other PCRs (considering NAs are non-V1)
dat.regions.ages$notV1 <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible - dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1
# All other PCRs with a result (removing NAs)
dat.regions.ages$notV1.narm <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3 + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_ABS

# Check that columns currently sum
all(dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3 + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_ABS + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1 + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_IND - dat.regions.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible == 0)
## [1] TRUE
dat.regions.ages$reg_name.fac <- as.factor(dat.regions.ages$reg_name)

GLM, assume that all indeterminate PCRs are non-V1

  1. Age as factor, compare models without and with interaction between age and time
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V1
mdl0 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
summary(mdl0)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -301.90   -26.12    11.46   133.33   597.88  
## 
## Coefficients: (4 not defined because of singularities)
##                                                                        Estimate
## (Intercept)                                                          -2.351e+15
## time                                                                  4.596e+13
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                  5.745e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                  4.207e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                 -2.196e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                  4.038e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                  4.078e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                  4.795e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                 -1.393e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                 -2.098e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                 -2.105e+15
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                               3.863e+15
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                              7.066e+14
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                   2.992e+14
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                 6.077e+15
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                            -6.952e+14
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                            4.420e+15
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                               -1.221e+15
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                       5.463e+14
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                         5.917e+14
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                           -1.957e+15
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                           -2.990e+15
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                               2.848e+15
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                            -1.155e+14
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                    6.828e+13
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                             5.172e+14
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                     -2.000e+14
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                            6.174e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                            -1.362e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                             1.504e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                             1.138e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                            -1.573e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                             1.941e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                             1.638e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                             8.988e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                             6.573e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                             1.180e+14
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                          1.842e+12
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                        -2.303e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                             -1.626e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                           -6.271e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                       -5.481e+12
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                       5.904e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                           6.057e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                 -2.103e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                   -1.869e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                      -3.358e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                       2.750e+14
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                          1.578e+14
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                        1.410e+12
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                               3.090e+12
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                       -2.609e+13
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                -6.460e+11
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                      -1.306e+13
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -5.904e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -4.392e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.736e+13
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -4.340e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -4.463e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -9.215e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          9.181e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -5.907e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          1.215e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -6.017e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -4.424e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -1.905e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -4.227e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.351e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -1.123e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         8.671e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -6.029e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         1.152e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -1.472e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -2.920e+14
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -1.847e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              5.070e+13
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -6.606e+13
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.931e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              6.795e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -1.038e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              5.682e+14
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -6.821e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -4.964e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -6.679e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -4.906e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -4.609e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -9.593e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            6.566e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -7.471e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            3.097e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -1.442e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.860e+14
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.770e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        4.494e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.831e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        3.980e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        9.642e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -4.183e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.398e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -4.081e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -2.344e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       5.223e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -2.428e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -3.087e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       7.219e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.808e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.644e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -7.896e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -2.377e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -8.105e+12
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           5.394e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -1.293e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           8.801e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.668e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -3.286e+16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.495e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                  NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -5.805e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.840e+14
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.078e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -4.166e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  2.603e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -7.964e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  9.404e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -6.103e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.272e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -5.819e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -4.417e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.120e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -4.119e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    2.068e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -7.387e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    8.141e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -1.003e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    7.786e+14
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -5.667e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -4.332e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       5.178e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -4.016e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       7.757e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       1.080e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       1.196e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -2.069e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -7.552e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -1.072e+14
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -9.075e+13
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       3.447e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -9.513e+14
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       4.512e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       7.462e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       3.491e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       4.268e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.003e+16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -7.250e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -7.143e+15
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -4.963e+15
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -9.038e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -9.915e+15
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -6.459e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -4.141e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -4.790e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                 NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -3.053e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.564e+14
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        4.427e+13
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -3.901e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        3.584e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -8.445e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        9.467e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -4.524e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.154e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -2.992e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               5.193e+13
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -2.469e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -4.264e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -1.003e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -1.922e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               3.641e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -9.785e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               3.034e+14
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -7.897e+14
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -3.371e+13
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.148e+13
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -4.376e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -1.099e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -1.186e+15
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        5.346e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -8.160e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        8.464e+14
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -5.774e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.020e+14
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.262e+14
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -4.061e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 3.595e+14
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -7.696e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.033e+15
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -2.905e+14
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.155e+15
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -6.871e+15
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -5.073e+13
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -4.049e+13
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -4.384e+15
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       7.430e+13
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -8.629e+14
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       3.361e+14
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -1.009e+15
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       5.952e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.606e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     7.277e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.216e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.886e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.151e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -1.363e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -6.732e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -5.453e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -1.011e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.542e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -3.397e+11
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.019e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.719e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -5.184e+11
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -1.357e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -6.970e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -4.206e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -8.362e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.482e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.222e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         5.797e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.782e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         7.175e+11
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -1.211e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -6.918e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -2.762e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -7.428e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       1.902e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.225e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       4.276e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.034e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       1.086e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -1.284e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -5.128e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -3.379e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -1.622e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.536e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.016e+11
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.315e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.665e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -9.895e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.589e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -7.279e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -4.364e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.042e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  4.791e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -1.015e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -3.646e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  7.471e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -7.562e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -2.393e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -1.274e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -2.056e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.883e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      4.989e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.289e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.412e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      1.217e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.264e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -3.654e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      1.155e+15
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -5.583e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                             NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             1.437e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -6.479e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -3.824e+11
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             1.680e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -7.745e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -1.484e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -7.576e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -4.565e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -9.810e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               1.390e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -9.317e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -8.431e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               1.597e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -1.342e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -1.583e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -7.252e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -2.821e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -7.656e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.300e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -1.366e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -4.672e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  1.584e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -2.205e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -1.973e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -8.771e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -4.716e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.887e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -6.104e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -2.973e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -2.702e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -9.480e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -3.549e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -5.998e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -3.325e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -9.583e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -6.298e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -2.392e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -2.594e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -1.682e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -4.641e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -3.567e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -2.212e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -1.385e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -2.694e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                            NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   3.237e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -2.458e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.967e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.626e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -1.126e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -1.498e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -7.931e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -4.688e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -1.022e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          2.195e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -9.242e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          5.401e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.651e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -6.753e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.914e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -6.706e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -5.471e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.019e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -4.617e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   5.535e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   8.478e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.807e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.169e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -1.291e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -5.461e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -3.237e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -7.782e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.342e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -9.478e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -5.308e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.620e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -1.557e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -1.516e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -7.961e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -7.006e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -1.014e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  2.374e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -8.261e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -6.069e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  1.692e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -8.039e+12
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -1.549e+14
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -5.486e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -2.800e+13
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -7.682e+13
##                                                                      Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                                           9.892e+05
## time                                                                  4.835e+04
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                  1.150e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                  1.144e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                  1.138e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                  1.141e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                  1.144e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                  1.216e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                  1.292e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                  1.405e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                  1.748e+06
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                               2.224e+06
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                              2.112e+06
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                   2.499e+06
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                 7.024e+06
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                             1.537e+06
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                            2.503e+07
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                                2.999e+07
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                       1.286e+06
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                         1.210e+06
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                            4.747e+06
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                            2.002e+07
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                               1.418e+08
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                             2.007e+06
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                    1.867e+06
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                             1.698e+06
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                      1.928e+06
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                            1.510e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                             5.626e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                             5.654e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                             5.621e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                             5.625e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                             5.680e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                             6.044e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                             6.575e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                             7.429e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                             1.014e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                          1.062e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                         1.068e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                              1.198e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                            3.201e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                        7.446e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                       1.570e+06
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                           2.182e+06
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                  6.232e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                    5.836e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                       2.520e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                       9.137e+05
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                          1.268e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                        9.752e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                               8.950e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                        8.147e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                 9.415e+04
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                       7.552e+04
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.539e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.526e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.533e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.514e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.515e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.603e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.756e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          2.896e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          3.452e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.448e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.409e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.473e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.442e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.475e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.708e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.963e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         3.058e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         3.773e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.833e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.818e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.817e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.799e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.813e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.899e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              3.068e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              3.205e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              3.660e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            8.337e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            8.032e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            7.700e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            7.969e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            7.796e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            7.898e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            8.471e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            9.343e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            1.228e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.788e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.777e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.775e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.783e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.793e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.907e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.043e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.194e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.750e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.592e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.630e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.602e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.583e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.564e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.609e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       3.073e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       3.247e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.480e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.167e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.227e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.315e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.164e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.305e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           3.824e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           6.381e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           5.709e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                  NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.498e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.493e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.483e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.483e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.494e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.587e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.704e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.862e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  2.390e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.410e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.389e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.383e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.387e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.398e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.480e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.616e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.771e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    2.269e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       5.537e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       5.629e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       5.484e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       5.491e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       5.541e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       6.288e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       7.607e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       1.164e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       8.349e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.263e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.112e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.119e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.133e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.104e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.185e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.319e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.313e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       3.277e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.425e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.420e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.420e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.420e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.420e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.418e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.429e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.565e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                 NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.094e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.322e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.303e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.292e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.305e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.394e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.564e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        2.779e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        3.480e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.156e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.137e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.146e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.139e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.155e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.264e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.431e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.586e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               3.086e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.948e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.925e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.922e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.926e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.929e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.031e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.151e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.258e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.617e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.198e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.193e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.209e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.201e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.214e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.339e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.495e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 2.645e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 3.109e+06
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.731e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.714e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.703e+06
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.700e+06
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.705e+06
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.789e+06
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.888e+06
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       2.023e+06
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       2.412e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.221e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.227e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.231e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.221e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.230e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.276e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.375e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.509e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.919e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.236e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.219e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.253e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.241e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.265e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.375e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.536e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.674e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    2.252e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.362e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.357e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.363e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.352e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.363e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.412e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.512e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.629e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.981e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.857e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.806e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.582e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.713e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.648e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.707e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       3.984e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       4.483e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       5.781e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   8.716e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   8.711e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   8.708e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   8.734e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   8.802e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   9.367e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.020e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.124e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.495e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.619e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.630e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.614e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.605e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.597e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.615e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.733e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.788e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  5.376e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.257e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.310e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.264e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.252e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.279e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.554e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.133e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      1.619e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                             NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             7.308e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             7.321e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             7.278e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             7.280e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             7.372e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             7.857e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             8.599e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             9.697e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             1.339e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               6.819e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               6.778e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               6.744e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               6.756e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               6.852e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               7.268e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               8.132e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               9.241e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               1.273e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.936e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.971e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.887e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.899e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  2.926e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  3.270e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  4.000e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  5.559e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  3.214e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.019e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  9.614e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  9.624e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  9.670e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  9.562e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  9.943e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.052e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  1.169e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  2.122e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.275e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.269e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.270e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.270e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.269e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.268e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.277e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     1.324e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                            NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.056e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.136e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.128e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.125e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.135e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.178e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.282e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.415e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.810e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.041e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.041e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.043e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.037e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.054e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.114e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.215e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.332e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.714e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   9.429e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   9.385e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   9.354e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   9.362e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   9.438e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   9.962e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.072e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.165e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.469e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.081e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.083e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.093e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.089e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.098e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.164e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.259e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.368e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.704e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.704e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.648e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.603e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.585e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  8.650e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  9.100e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  9.758e+04
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  1.077e+05
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  1.395e+05
##                                                                         z value
## (Intercept)                                                          -2.377e+09
## time                                                                  9.507e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                  4.997e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                  3.676e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                 -1.929e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                  3.538e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                  3.565e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                  3.943e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                 -1.079e+09
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                 -1.493e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                 -1.204e+09
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                               1.737e+09
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                              3.345e+08
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                   1.197e+08
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                 8.651e+08
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                            -4.523e+08
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                            1.766e+08
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                               -4.071e+07
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                       4.249e+08
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                         4.888e+08
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                           -4.122e+08
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                           -1.493e+08
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                               2.008e+07
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                            -5.755e+07
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                    3.657e+07
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                             3.047e+08
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                     -1.037e+08
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                            4.090e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                            -2.422e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                             2.660e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                             2.025e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                            -2.796e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                             3.418e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                             2.710e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                             1.367e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                             8.848e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                             1.163e+09
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                          1.735e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                        -2.157e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                             -1.358e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                           -1.959e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                       -7.361e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                       3.760e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                           2.776e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                 -3.374e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                   -3.202e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                      -1.332e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                       3.009e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                          1.244e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                        1.446e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                               3.452e+07
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                       -3.202e+08
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                -6.861e+06
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                      -1.729e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -2.326e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -1.739e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          1.080e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -1.726e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -1.775e+09
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -3.541e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          3.332e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -2.040e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          3.519e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -2.458e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -1.837e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -7.705e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -1.731e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         5.458e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -4.148e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         2.927e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        -1.972e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         3.053e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -5.195e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -1.036e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -6.556e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              1.811e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -2.348e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              1.011e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              2.215e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             -3.240e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              1.552e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -8.181e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -6.180e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -8.674e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -6.156e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -5.912e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -1.215e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            7.750e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           -7.996e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                            2.522e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -8.064e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.610e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        9.971e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.520e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        1.580e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        2.087e+09
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        4.719e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -1.907e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        5.084e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -1.574e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -8.913e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.007e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -9.403e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -1.204e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       2.767e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       5.885e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       8.142e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -5.335e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -7.505e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -2.511e+05
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           1.627e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -4.086e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           2.663e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           6.976e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -5.151e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           4.371e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                  NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -3.875e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.233e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  7.268e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -2.809e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  1.742e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -5.017e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  5.518e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 -3.278e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  5.323e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -4.128e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -3.180e+09
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    8.100e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -2.970e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    1.479e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -4.991e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    5.039e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   -5.665e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    3.432e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -1.023e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -7.696e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       9.441e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -7.315e+08
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       1.400e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       1.718e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       1.572e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -1.777e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -9.045e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -4.737e+06
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -4.297e+06
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.626e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -4.461e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       2.145e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       3.415e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.505e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       1.845e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       3.061e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -5.087e+07
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -5.031e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -3.495e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -6.363e+07
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -6.983e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -4.555e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -2.897e+07
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -3.061e+07
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                 NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -1.458e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.104e+08
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.922e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -1.702e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        1.555e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -3.528e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        3.692e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       -1.628e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        3.316e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -1.388e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               2.430e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -1.150e+08
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -1.993e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -4.653e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -8.488e+07
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               1.498e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -3.784e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               9.833e+07
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -4.055e+08
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -1.751e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        1.118e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -2.273e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -5.697e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -5.837e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        2.485e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -3.613e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        3.235e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -2.627e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 9.215e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 5.712e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -1.845e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 1.623e+08
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -3.290e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 4.140e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                -1.098e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 3.715e+08
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -3.970e+09
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -2.959e+07
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -2.377e+07
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -2.579e+09
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       4.357e+07
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -4.823e+08
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       1.780e+08
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -4.985e+08
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       2.468e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.316e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     5.933e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     9.878e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     1.544e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     9.355e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -1.068e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -4.895e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -3.614e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -5.269e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.248e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -2.787e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    8.127e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    1.385e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -4.098e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -9.865e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -4.537e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -2.512e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -3.714e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.088e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         9.003e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         4.253e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         1.317e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         5.265e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -8.578e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -4.574e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -1.695e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -3.749e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       4.932e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       8.474e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       1.194e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       5.477e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                       2.977e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -3.464e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -1.287e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -7.537e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -2.806e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.763e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.166e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.510e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   1.906e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.124e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.697e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -7.136e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -3.882e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -6.972e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  2.959e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -6.227e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -2.259e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  4.654e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -4.735e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -1.482e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -7.353e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -1.150e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  3.502e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      2.211e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -5.580e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -6.238e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      5.405e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -5.545e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.431e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      5.412e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -3.448e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                             NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             1.966e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -8.849e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -5.255e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             2.307e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -1.051e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -1.889e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -8.811e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -4.707e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -7.325e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               2.039e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -1.374e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -1.250e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               2.364e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -1.959e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -2.178e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -8.918e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -3.053e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -6.013e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  4.427e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -4.597e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -1.618e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  5.463e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -7.537e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -6.034e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -2.192e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -8.484e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  8.983e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -5.990e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -3.092e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -2.808e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -9.803e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -3.711e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -6.032e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -3.160e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -8.201e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -2.968e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -1.877e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -2.044e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -1.325e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -3.653e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -2.810e+06
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -1.744e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -1.084e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -2.035e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                            NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   3.066e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -2.165e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   5.291e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   1.445e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -9.919e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -1.271e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -6.185e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -3.313e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -5.648e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          2.108e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -8.879e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          5.176e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          1.592e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -6.409e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -1.718e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -5.520e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -4.109e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -5.947e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -4.897e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   5.898e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   9.063e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.930e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.238e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -1.296e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -5.094e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -2.779e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -5.297e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.242e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -8.755e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -4.857e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            1.488e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -1.417e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -1.303e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -6.324e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -5.123e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -5.953e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  2.728e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -9.552e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -7.054e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  1.971e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -9.294e+07
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -1.702e+09
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -5.622e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -2.599e+08
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -5.505e+08
##                                                                      Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                                                            <2e-16
## time                                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                   <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                                <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                               <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                    <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                  <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                              <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                             <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                                 <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                        <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                          <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                             <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                             <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                                <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                              <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                     <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                              <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                       <2e-16
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                              <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                           <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                          <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                               <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                             <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                         <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                        <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                            <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                   <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                     <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                        <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                        <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                           <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                         <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                         <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                  <2e-16
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                             <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                               NA
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                         <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          NA
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine           <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16
##                                                                         
## (Intercept)                                                          ***
## time                                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5                                                 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5                                                 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                              ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                             ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                                  ***
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                                ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                            ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                           ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                               ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                      ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                        ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                           ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                           ***
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                              ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                            ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                                   ***
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                            ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                     ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                                            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                                            ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                         ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                        ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                             ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                           ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                       ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                      ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                                          ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                                 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                                   ***
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                                      ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                                      ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                         ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                                       ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                              ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                       ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                                ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                      ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                        ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire             ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                           ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                          ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                             
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                   ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                            
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Corse                      ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Guyane                        
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                       
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance:    288951  on 5615  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 141785063  on 5260  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 141815363
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 25
# Without interaction
mdl1 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time*factor(reg_name) + factor(ageClass), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(reg_name) + factor(ageClass), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -7.9115  -0.8101   0.0000   0.9625   5.4951  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                   Estimate Std. Error z value
## (Intercept)                                     -0.4235758  0.0084040 -50.402
## time                                             0.0603814  0.0003667 164.660
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté         -0.5075154  0.0140963 -36.004
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         0.6758922  0.0149479  45.217
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              0.1660039  0.0147630  11.245
## factor(reg_name)Corse                            1.2031818  0.0446575  26.942
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                       -0.3657492  0.0106826 -34.238
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       1.3681536  0.1091354  12.536
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                          -0.6996081  0.1696956  -4.123
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  0.6780981  0.0088819  76.346
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    0.6889399  0.0081516  84.516
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                      -2.2693069  0.0644602 -35.205
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                       0.2599656  0.0917059   2.835
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                         -4.9159421  0.2981480 -16.488
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                        0.1194172  0.0131337   9.092
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               0.0198944  0.0123402   1.612
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        0.4298178  0.0106224  40.463
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 0.0753950  0.0123736   6.093
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       0.5151861  0.0093743  54.958
## factor(ageClass)14.5                             0.0371522  0.0060150   6.177
## factor(ageClass)24.5                            -0.0110265  0.0059302  -1.859
## factor(ageClass)34.5                             0.0154638  0.0059464   2.601
## factor(ageClass)44.5                             0.0298075  0.0059463   5.013
## factor(ageClass)54.5                            -0.0450538  0.0060031  -7.505
## factor(ageClass)64.5                            -0.1312018  0.0062934 -20.847
## factor(ageClass)74.5                            -0.2889058  0.0068608 -42.110
## factor(ageClass)84.5                            -0.5533838  0.0075334 -73.457
## factor(ageClass)94.5                            -0.7094929  0.0097393 -72.848
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     0.0084092  0.0007535  11.160
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -0.0153069  0.0008358 -18.315
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -0.0110001  0.0007796 -14.109
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -0.0332383  0.0023704 -14.023
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -0.0124541  0.0005563 -22.387
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  0.0136434  0.0070045   1.948
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -0.0619699  0.0088932  -6.968
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -0.0228060  0.0004831 -47.208
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France              -0.0255475  0.0004391 -58.178
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -0.0416583  0.0031811 -13.096
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  0.0305187  0.0049278   6.193
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -0.0023713  0.0170594  -0.139
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -0.0013826  0.0007118  -1.942
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -0.0013363  0.0006697  -1.995
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                  -0.0156876  0.0005806 -27.019
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -0.0132352  0.0006671 -19.839
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -0.0114027  0.0005311 -21.469
##                                                 Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                      < 2e-16 ***
## time                                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Corse                            < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                          3.74e-05 ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                       0.00459 ** 
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               0.10693    
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                1.11e-09 ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5                            6.55e-10 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5                             0.06298 .  
## factor(ageClass)34.5                             0.00931 ** 
## factor(ageClass)44.5                            5.37e-07 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5                            6.14e-14 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5                             < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                       < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  0.05144 .  
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     3.21e-12 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 5.90e-10 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     0.88945    
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   0.05208 .  
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          0.04602 *  
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 288951  on 5615  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  14141  on 5571  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 43819
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6
# Without interaction
mdl1bis <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time*factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl1bis)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -11.159   -1.003    0.000    1.099    7.940  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                              Estimate Std. Error  z value
## (Intercept)                                 0.0095931  0.0111185    0.863
## time                                        0.0341499  0.0005343   63.918
## factor(ageClass)14.5                       -0.1389019  0.0123281  -11.267
## factor(ageClass)24.5                       -0.1997682  0.0121467  -16.446
## factor(ageClass)34.5                       -0.1641680  0.0121348  -13.529
## factor(ageClass)44.5                       -0.1623150  0.0121189  -13.394
## factor(ageClass)54.5                       -0.2662388  0.0122300  -21.769
## factor(ageClass)64.5                       -0.3544569  0.0128234  -27.641
## factor(ageClass)74.5                       -0.6057635  0.0139169  -43.527
## factor(ageClass)84.5                       -0.9124917  0.0150447  -60.652
## factor(ageClass)94.5                       -1.1126727  0.0186966  -59.512
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -0.3597439  0.0068314  -52.661
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    0.4338904  0.0078195   55.489
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -0.0055348  0.0071953   -0.769
## factor(reg_name)Corse                       0.6692988  0.0218671   30.608
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -0.5616656  0.0051816 -108.396
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.5283970  0.0555740   27.502
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.7654428  0.0873112  -20.220
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             0.3164385  0.0045224   69.971
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               0.2768701  0.0041080   67.397
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -3.0193858  0.0277003 -109.002
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                  0.8002132  0.0440325   18.173
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -4.9667715  0.1499360  -33.126
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                   0.1000879  0.0065041   15.388
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          0.0013658  0.0062073    0.220
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   0.1824179  0.0054870   33.246
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -0.1351189  0.0062711  -21.546
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  0.3308846  0.0049203   67.249
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                   0.0101213  0.0006257   16.175
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                   0.0108507  0.0006184   17.547
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                   0.0102452  0.0006184   16.567
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                   0.0110759  0.0006186   17.906
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                   0.0128209  0.0006259   20.484
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                   0.0129894  0.0006580   19.741
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                   0.0189400  0.0007248   26.130
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                   0.0218128  0.0007957   27.412
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                   0.0252219  0.0010305   24.476
##                                            Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                   0.388    
## time                                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)34.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)44.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5                         <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté      <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                     <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire           0.442    
## factor(reg_name)Corse                        <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                    <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                   <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                       <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France              <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                   <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                   <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                      <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                    <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine            0.826    
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire             <2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)14.5                    <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)24.5                    <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)34.5                    <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)44.5                    <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)54.5                    <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)64.5                    <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)74.5                    <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)84.5                    <2e-16 ***
## time:factor(ageClass)94.5                    <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 288951  on 5615  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  19875  on 5579  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 49538
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6
# Without interaction at all
mdl2 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl2)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max  
## -11.6253   -0.9642    0.0000    1.1369    8.6257  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                              Estimate Std. Error  z value
## (Intercept)                                -0.1970675  0.0063985  -30.799
## time                                        0.0460207  0.0001213  379.454
## factor(ageClass)14.5                        0.0384698  0.0060096    6.401
## factor(ageClass)24.5                       -0.0100744  0.0059258   -1.700
## factor(ageClass)34.5                        0.0160130  0.0059421    2.695
## factor(ageClass)44.5                        0.0312501  0.0059415    5.260
## factor(ageClass)54.5                       -0.0450709  0.0059977   -7.515
## factor(ageClass)64.5                       -0.1303907  0.0062874  -20.738
## factor(ageClass)74.5                       -0.2880828  0.0068515  -42.047
## factor(ageClass)84.5                       -0.5534251  0.0075219  -73.575
## factor(ageClass)94.5                       -0.7113557  0.0097184  -73.197
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -0.3601374  0.0068289  -52.737
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    0.4343518  0.0078163   55.570
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire        -0.0048618  0.0071912   -0.676
## factor(reg_name)Corse                       0.6717852  0.0218536   30.740
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -0.5595509  0.0051813 -107.995
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  1.5340050  0.0555606   27.610
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -1.7650271  0.0873644  -20.203
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             0.3174071  0.0045210   70.207
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               0.2771086  0.0041073   67.467
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -3.0201814  0.0277087 -108.998
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                  0.7979783  0.0439979   18.137
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -4.9675387  0.1499308  -33.132
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                   0.1024369  0.0065013   15.756
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          0.0015595  0.0062053    0.251
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   0.1819404  0.0054834   33.180
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -0.1337211  0.0062690  -21.330
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  0.3304583  0.0049167   67.211
##                                            Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                 < 2e-16 ***
## time                                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)14.5                       1.54e-10 ***
## factor(ageClass)24.5                        0.08911 .  
## factor(ageClass)34.5                        0.00704 ** 
## factor(ageClass)44.5                       1.44e-07 ***
## factor(ageClass)54.5                       5.70e-14 ***
## factor(ageClass)64.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)74.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)84.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(ageClass)94.5                        < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         0.49899    
## factor(reg_name)Corse                       < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                      < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                   < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          0.80157    
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 288951  on 5615  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  21187  on 5588  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 50831
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6
## Likelihood ratio tests
anova(mdl1, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(reg_name) + factor(ageClass)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Df   Deviance Pr(>Chi)
## 1      5571      14141                        
## 2      5260  141785063 311 -141770922
anova(mdl1bis, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Df   Deviance Pr(>Chi)
## 1      5579      19875                        
## 2      5260  141785063 319 -141765187
anova(mdl2, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time + factor(ageClass) + factor(reg_name)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Df   Deviance Pr(>Chi)
## 1      5588      21187                        
## 2      5260  141785063 328 -141763876
  1. Age as quantitative
mdl3 <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass * factor(reg_name), data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl3)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass * factor(reg_name), 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -9.8299  -1.1686  -0.0532   0.8732   7.2128  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                                            Estimate Std. Error
## (Intercept)                                              -5.257e-02  1.427e-02
## time                                                      5.294e-02  7.766e-04
## ageClass                                                 -1.042e-02  2.986e-04
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                  -5.778e-01  3.016e-02
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                  5.056e-01  3.101e-02
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                       1.574e-01  3.199e-02
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                     5.247e-01  1.037e-01
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                -5.961e-01  2.237e-02
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                1.406e+00  2.883e-01
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                   -2.208e+00  4.160e-01
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                           5.312e-01  1.894e-02
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                             5.966e-01  1.756e-02
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                               -2.961e+00  1.448e-01
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                4.122e-01  2.264e-01
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                  -1.349e+01  2.878e+00
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                -3.678e-02  2.820e-02
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                        1.587e-01  2.634e-02
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                 4.511e-01  2.281e-02
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                         -1.184e-01  2.592e-02
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                5.485e-01  2.047e-02
## time:ageClass                                             1.794e-04  1.654e-05
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté              9.943e-03  1.592e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                            -1.383e-02  1.731e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                 -1.326e-02  1.677e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                               -1.125e-02  5.381e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                           -7.040e-03  1.163e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                           2.025e-02  1.895e-02
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                              -3.694e-02  2.322e-02
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                     -2.161e-02  1.021e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                       -2.692e-02  9.384e-04
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                          -1.907e-02  7.081e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                           4.078e-02  1.294e-02
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                              4.414e-01  1.077e-01
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                            7.080e-03  1.529e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                  -3.697e-05  1.425e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                           -2.350e-02  1.232e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                    -1.048e-02  1.389e-03
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur          -1.666e-02  1.152e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté          1.777e-03  6.136e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                         3.767e-03  6.596e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire              3.466e-04  6.376e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Corse                            1.533e-02  2.062e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        5.496e-03  4.728e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                      -8.014e-05  5.919e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guyane                           4.193e-02  9.766e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                  3.528e-03  3.968e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                    2.305e-03  3.713e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                       1.844e-02  3.358e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Martinique                      -2.751e-03  4.420e-03
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                          1.443e-01  4.488e-02
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Normandie                        3.815e-03  5.783e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine              -3.209e-03  5.476e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                       -4.197e-04  4.621e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                 4.504e-03  5.392e-04
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur      -4.202e-04  4.155e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté    -4.360e-05  3.305e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                   -1.630e-05  3.796e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire         4.602e-05  3.422e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Corse                      -5.104e-04  1.062e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                  -1.308e-04  2.476e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                 -1.498e-04  3.644e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guyane                     -7.201e-04  5.384e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France            -2.795e-05  2.179e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France               4.262e-05  2.022e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                 -5.896e-04  1.651e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Martinique                 -2.271e-04  2.595e-04
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                    -7.721e-03  1.736e-03
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Normandie                  -2.060e-04  3.140e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine         -3.954e-05  2.987e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                   1.793e-04  2.561e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire           -6.554e-05  2.929e-05
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  1.097e-04  2.385e-05
##                                                          z value Pr(>|z|)    
## (Intercept)                                               -3.683 0.000231 ***
## time                                                      68.165  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass                                                 -34.908  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté                  -19.160  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Bretagne                                  16.302  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                        4.919 8.72e-07 ***
## factor(reg_name)Corse                                      5.060 4.20e-07 ***
## factor(reg_name)Grand Est                                -26.654  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                                 4.878 1.07e-06 ***
## factor(reg_name)Guyane                                    -5.307 1.11e-07 ***
## factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                           28.042  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                             33.986  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)La Réunion                               -20.456  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Martinique                                 1.821 0.068602 .  
## factor(reg_name)Mayotte                                   -4.686 2.79e-06 ***
## factor(reg_name)Normandie                                 -1.304 0.192129    
## factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                         6.025 1.69e-09 ***
## factor(reg_name)Occitanie                                 19.779  < 2e-16 ***
## factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                          -4.568 4.92e-06 ***
## factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur                26.798  < 2e-16 ***
## time:ageClass                                             10.843  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté               6.246 4.20e-10 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                             -7.990 1.35e-15 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire                  -7.908 2.61e-15 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Corse                                -2.090 0.036589 *  
## time:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                            -6.056 1.40e-09 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                            1.068 0.285330    
## time:factor(reg_name)Guyane                               -1.591 0.111658    
## time:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                     -21.161  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                       -28.686  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                           -2.693 0.007071 ** 
## time:factor(reg_name)Martinique                            3.152 0.001622 ** 
## time:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                               4.098 4.16e-05 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Normandie                             4.630 3.65e-06 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine                   -0.026 0.979300    
## time:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                           -19.075  < 2e-16 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                     -7.545 4.53e-14 ***
## time:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur          -14.465  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté           2.895 0.003789 ** 
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                          5.711 1.12e-08 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire               0.544 0.586649    
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Corse                             7.436 1.04e-13 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                        11.626  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                       -0.014 0.989197    
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guyane                            4.294 1.76e-05 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France                   8.891  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                     6.208 5.36e-10 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                        5.490 4.03e-08 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Martinique                       -0.622 0.533738    
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                           3.214 0.001308 ** 
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Normandie                         6.598 4.17e-11 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine               -5.861 4.60e-09 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                        -0.908 0.363793    
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire                  8.354  < 2e-16 ***
## ageClass:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur       -1.011 0.311868    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bourgogne-Franche-Comté     -1.319 0.187093    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Bretagne                    -0.429 0.667669    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Centre-Val de Loire          1.345 0.178725    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Corse                       -4.804 1.56e-06 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Grand Est                   -5.281 1.28e-07 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guadeloupe                  -0.411 0.680991    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Guyane                      -1.338 0.181047    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Hauts-de-France             -1.283 0.199518    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)ÃŽle-de-France                2.108 0.035022 *  
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)La Réunion                  -3.572 0.000354 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Martinique                  -0.875 0.381451    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Mayotte                     -4.447 8.70e-06 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Normandie                   -6.560 5.39e-11 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Nouvelle-Aquitaine          -1.323 0.185696    
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Occitanie                    7.004 2.49e-12 ***
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Pays de la Loire            -2.237 0.025269 *  
## time:ageClass:factor(reg_name)Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur   4.599 4.24e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 288951  on 5615  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  19332  on 5544  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 49065
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 7
## Likelihood ratio test
anova(mdl3, mdl0, test="Chisq")
## Analysis of Deviance Table
## 
## Model 1: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * ageClass * factor(reg_name)
## Model 2: cbind(V1, notV1) ~ time * factor(ageClass) * factor(reg_name)
##   Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Df   Deviance Pr(>Chi)
## 1      5544      19332                        
## 2      5260  141785063 284 -141765730
# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V1
mdl <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1) ~ date2 * as.factor(ageClass) + reg_name.fac, data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1) ~ date2 * as.factor(ageClass) + 
##     reg_name.fac, family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -11.159   -1.003    0.000    1.099    7.940  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                            -6.378e+02  9.988e+00  -63.857   <2e-16
## date2                                   3.415e-02  5.343e-04   63.918   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)14.5                -1.892e+02  1.170e+01  -16.172   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)24.5                -2.028e+02  1.156e+01  -17.548   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)34.5                -1.915e+02  1.156e+01  -16.566   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)44.5                -2.070e+02  1.156e+01  -17.904   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)54.5                -2.397e+02  1.170e+01  -20.488   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)64.5                -2.429e+02  1.230e+01  -19.752   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)74.5                -3.543e+02  1.355e+01  -26.151   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)84.5                -4.083e+02  1.487e+01  -27.450   <2e-16
## as.factor(ageClass)94.5                -4.722e+02  1.926e+01  -24.513   <2e-16
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    -3.597e-01  6.831e-03  -52.661   <2e-16
## reg_name.facBretagne                    4.339e-01  7.820e-03   55.489   <2e-16
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        -5.535e-03  7.195e-03   -0.769    0.442
## reg_name.facCorse                       6.693e-01  2.187e-02   30.608   <2e-16
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  -5.617e-01  5.182e-03 -108.396   <2e-16
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                  1.528e+00  5.557e-02   27.502   <2e-16
## reg_name.facGuyane                     -1.765e+00  8.731e-02  -20.220   <2e-16
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France             3.164e-01  4.522e-03   69.971   <2e-16
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France               2.769e-01  4.108e-03   67.397   <2e-16
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 -3.019e+00  2.770e-02 -109.002   <2e-16
## reg_name.facMartinique                  8.002e-01  4.403e-02   18.173   <2e-16
## reg_name.facMayotte                    -4.967e+00  1.499e-01  -33.126   <2e-16
## reg_name.facNormandie                   1.001e-01  6.504e-03   15.388   <2e-16
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine          1.366e-03  6.207e-03    0.220    0.826
## reg_name.facOccitanie                   1.824e-01  5.487e-03   33.246   <2e-16
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           -1.351e-01  6.271e-03  -21.546   <2e-16
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  3.309e-01  4.920e-03   67.249   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)14.5           1.012e-02  6.257e-04   16.175   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)24.5           1.085e-02  6.184e-04   17.547   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)34.5           1.025e-02  6.184e-04   16.567   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)44.5           1.108e-02  6.186e-04   17.906   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)54.5           1.282e-02  6.259e-04   20.484   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)64.5           1.299e-02  6.580e-04   19.741   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)74.5           1.894e-02  7.248e-04   26.130   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)84.5           2.181e-02  7.957e-04   27.412   <2e-16
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)94.5           2.522e-02  1.030e-03   24.476   <2e-16
##                                           
## (Intercept)                            ***
## date2                                  ***
## as.factor(ageClass)14.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)24.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)34.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)44.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)54.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)64.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)74.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)84.5                ***
## as.factor(ageClass)94.5                ***
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## reg_name.facBretagne                   ***
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire           
## reg_name.facCorse                      ***
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  ***
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 ***
## reg_name.facGuyane                     ***
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            ***
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France              ***
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 ***
## reg_name.facMartinique                 ***
## reg_name.facMayotte                    ***
## reg_name.facNormandie                  ***
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine            
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  ***
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           ***
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)14.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)24.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)34.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)44.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)54.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)64.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)74.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)84.5          ***
## date2:as.factor(ageClass)94.5          ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 288951  on 5615  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  19875  on 5579  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 49538
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6
# Ignoring IND
mdl.narm <- glm(cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ date2 + cl_age90 + reg_name.fac, data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V1, notV1.narm) ~ date2 + cl_age90 + reg_name.fac, 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max  
## -9.996  -1.176   0.000   1.044   8.784  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error  z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                            -1.075e+03  2.559e+00 -420.163  < 2e-16
## date2                                   5.759e-02  1.369e-04  420.552  < 2e-16
## cl_age90                               -6.847e-03  5.856e-05 -116.919  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    -4.610e-01  7.204e-03  -63.996  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBretagne                    4.689e-01  8.554e-03   54.825  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire         1.599e-01  8.092e-03   19.758  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCorse                       1.443e+00  3.216e-02   44.886  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  -6.088e-01  5.544e-03 -109.824  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                  1.621e+00  6.240e-02   25.985  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuyane                     -1.735e+00  9.077e-02  -19.112  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France             4.397e-01  4.981e-03   88.273  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France               5.284e-01  4.568e-03  115.669  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 -2.981e+00  2.827e-02 -105.454  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMartinique                  7.193e-01  4.692e-02   15.330  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMayotte                    -4.879e+00  1.501e-01  -32.511  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNormandie                   1.815e-01  7.176e-03   25.294  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         -4.204e-02  6.655e-03   -6.317 2.66e-10
## reg_name.facOccitanie                   2.477e-01  6.004e-03   41.253  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           -1.991e-01  6.677e-03  -29.814  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur  4.827e-01  5.444e-03   88.667  < 2e-16
##                                           
## (Intercept)                            ***
## date2                                  ***
## cl_age90                               ***
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## reg_name.facBretagne                   ***
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        ***
## reg_name.facCorse                      ***
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  ***
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 ***
## reg_name.facGuyane                     ***
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            ***
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France              ***
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 ***
## reg_name.facMartinique                 ***
## reg_name.facMayotte                    ***
## reg_name.facNormandie                  ***
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  ***
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           ***
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 346463  on 5587  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  22471  on 5568  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 50855
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 5

V2

par(mfrow = c(4, 3))
for(region in tmp){
  subdat <- dat.regions[dat.regions$reg == region, ]
  plot(subdat$date2, subdat$Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3, ylim = c(0, 100), main = regs[as.character(region)], col = colsAge[as.character(subdat$cl_age90)], pch = pchAge[as.character(subdat$cl_age90)], 
       xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V2/V3"
       )
}

# Create new colums with information on number of specific PCR tests
# PCR with V2/3 result
dat.regions.ages$V23 <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3
# All other PCRs (considering NAs are non-V1)
dat.regions.ages$notV23 <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible - dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V2_3
# All other PCRs with a result (removing NAs)
dat.regions.ages$notV23.narm <- dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_501Y_V1 + dat.regions.ages$Nb_susp_ABS

# GLM
# Assuming that all IND (indetermine) are non-V23
mdl <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23) ~ date2 + ageClass + reg_name.fac, data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23) ~ date2 + ageClass + reg_name.fac, 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.4007  -1.0289  -0.2699   0.6114   6.7974  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                          Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                            23.4717481  4.9170938   4.774 1.81e-06
## date2                                  -0.0014301  0.0002630  -5.437 5.42e-08
## ageClass                               -0.0013009  0.0001147 -11.346  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté     0.3639366  0.0158366  22.981  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBretagne                    0.1281256  0.0181289   7.067 1.58e-12
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        -0.6594859  0.0238790 -27.618  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCorse                      -1.1019891  0.0839998 -13.119  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGrand Est                   1.7981701  0.0100361 179.170  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 -1.7038434  0.2191094  -7.776 7.47e-15
## reg_name.facGuyane                      1.8345173  0.0944560  19.422  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            -0.5487490  0.0128584 -42.676  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France               0.3461739  0.0099607  34.754  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                  2.9579021  0.0177259 166.869  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMartinique                 -1.0790098  0.1554956  -6.939 3.94e-12
## reg_name.facMayotte                     3.2315205  0.0298375 108.304  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNormandie                  -0.2163590  0.0178337 -12.132  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         -0.0853504  0.0163646  -5.216 1.83e-07
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  -0.8727692  0.0185356 -47.086  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire            0.7113735  0.0132372  53.740  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -0.1550956  0.0128523 -12.068  < 2e-16
##                                           
## (Intercept)                            ***
## date2                                  ***
## ageClass                               ***
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## reg_name.facBretagne                   ***
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        ***
## reg_name.facCorse                      ***
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  ***
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 ***
## reg_name.facGuyane                     ***
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            ***
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France              ***
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 ***
## reg_name.facMartinique                 ***
## reg_name.facMayotte                    ***
## reg_name.facNormandie                  ***
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  ***
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           ***
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 138227  on 5615  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  13268  on 5596  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 33986
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6
# Ignoring IND
mdl.narm <- glm(cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ date2 + ageClass + reg_name.fac, data = dat.regions.ages, family = "binomial")
summary(mdl.narm)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = cbind(V23, notV23.narm) ~ date2 + ageClass + reg_name.fac, 
##     family = "binomial", data = dat.regions.ages)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -5.3768  -1.0007  -0.2419   0.6658   6.6382  
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                         Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept)                            16.369676   4.954720   3.304 0.000954
## date2                                  -0.001046   0.000265  -3.947 7.90e-05
## ageClass                               -0.001245   0.000116 -10.736  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté     0.346632   0.015859  21.857  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facBretagne                    0.117749   0.018153   6.486 8.79e-11
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        -0.610236   0.023909 -25.524  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facCorse                      -1.015450   0.084088 -12.076  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGrand Est                   1.832617   0.010072 181.946  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 -1.752689   0.219129  -7.998 1.26e-15
## reg_name.facGuyane                      1.946893   0.096250  20.227  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            -0.533992   0.012873 -41.481  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France               0.393133   0.009979  39.396  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                  3.327353   0.019220 173.122  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facMartinique                 -1.129468   0.155522  -7.262 3.80e-13
## reg_name.facMayotte                     3.474145   0.032166 108.005  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNormandie                  -0.195090   0.017860 -10.924  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         -0.095232   0.016384  -5.813 6.15e-09
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  -0.862923   0.018551 -46.517  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire            0.701614   0.013262  52.902  < 2e-16
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur -0.131642   0.012870 -10.228  < 2e-16
##                                           
## (Intercept)                            ***
## date2                                  ***
## ageClass                               ***
## reg_name.facBourgogne-Franche-Comté    ***
## reg_name.facBretagne                   ***
## reg_name.facCentre-Val de Loire        ***
## reg_name.facCorse                      ***
## reg_name.facGrand Est                  ***
## reg_name.facGuadeloupe                 ***
## reg_name.facGuyane                     ***
## reg_name.facHauts-de-France            ***
## reg_name.facÃŽle-de-France              ***
## reg_name.facLa Réunion                 ***
## reg_name.facMartinique                 ***
## reg_name.facMayotte                    ***
## reg_name.facNormandie                  ***
## reg_name.facNouvelle-Aquitaine         ***
## reg_name.facOccitanie                  ***
## reg_name.facPays de la Loire           ***
## reg_name.facProvence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
## 
##     Null deviance: 142356  on 5587  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance:  13189  on 5568  degrees of freedom
##   (990 observations deleted due to missingness)
## AIC: 33732
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 6

All

par(mfrow = c(4, 3))
tmp <- unique(dat.regions$reg) # Region codes
tmp <- tmp[tmp>10 & tmp <= 93] # Choose only metropolitan regions
for(region in tmp){
  subdat <- dat.regions[dat.regions$reg == region, ]

  cc <- getVec(subdat[subdat$cl_age90 == 0, ], prop = FALSE)
  plotDist(cc$x, cc$cA, cc$cB, cc$cC, cc$cD)
  title(main = regs[as.character(region)])
}

Départements

URL <- "https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/16f4fd03-797f-4616-bca9-78ff212d06e8"
dataFile <- paste0("data/Dep_", today, ".csv") # name file with today's date
download.file(URL, dataFile) # download file from repo
dat.deps <- read.csv(dataFile, sep = ";", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)

# Format date
dat.deps$date1 <- as.Date(substring(dat.deps$semaine, 1, 10))
dat.deps$date2 <- as.Date(substring(dat.deps$semaine, 12, 21))

# Rewrite time as days since beginning of the data
dat.deps$time <- dat.deps$date2 - min(dat.deps$date2)

# Compute data on total tests
dat.deps$Nb_tests_POS <- dat.deps$Nb_tests_PCR_TA_crible / (dat.deps$Prc_tests_PCR_TA_crible / 100)
# Add name
deps <- read.csv("data/departement2020.csv", stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
# Turn into dictionnary
dps <- deps$libelle
names(dps) <- as.character(deps$dep)
dat.deps$departement <- dps[as.character(dat.deps$dep)]

V1

par(mfrow = c(35, 3))
for(idep in sort(unique(dat.deps$dep))){
  tmp <- dat.deps[dat.deps$dep == idep, ]
  plot(tmp$date2, tmp$Prc_susp_501Y_V1, ylim = c(0, 100), col = colsAge[as.character(tmp$cl_age90)], pch = pchAge[as.character(tmp$cl_age90)], 
       xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V1", 
       main = unique(tmp$departement))
  
#  legend(x = min(dat.deps$date2), y = 100, legend = ages, pch = pchAge, col = colsAge)
}

V2/V3

par(mfrow = c(35, 3))
for(idep in sort(unique(dat.deps$dep))){
  tmp <- dat.deps[dat.deps$dep == idep, ]
  plot(tmp$date2, tmp$Prc_susp_501Y_V2_3, ylim = c(0, 100), col = colsAge[as.character(tmp$cl_age90)], pch = pchAge[as.character(tmp$cl_age90)], 
       xlab = "date", ylab = "Proportion V2V3", 
       main = unique(tmp$departement))
  
#  legend(x = min(dat.deps$date2), y = 100, legend = ages, pch = pchAge, col = colsAge)
}

All

par(mfrow = c(35, 3))
for(idep in sort(unique(dat.deps$dep))){
  subdat <- dat.deps[dat.deps$dep == idep, ]
  if(any(!is.na(subdat$Nb_tests_POS))){
    cc <- getVec(subdat[subdat$cl_age90 == 0, ], prop = FALSE)
    plotDist(cc$x, cc$cA, cc$cB, cc$cC, cc$cD)
    title(main = unique(subdat$departement))
  }
  
  
#  legend(x = min(dat.deps$date2), y = 100, legend = ages, pch = pchAge, col = colsAge)
}